“美元最强论”重新抬头，日元要贬？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated appreciation of the US dollar due to significant foreign direct investments, particularly from Japan, which is expected to lead to a depreciation of the yen against the dollar [2][4][10]. Group 1: Foreign Direct Investment Impact - Japan has committed to a direct investment of 80 trillion yen in the US, which is projected to cause a depreciation of the yen by approximately 1 yen for every 1 trillion yen invested [2][6][7]. - The total foreign direct investment commitments from Japan, the EU, and South Korea amount to approximately 1.5 trillion USD, which is nearly 30% of the expected 5.7 trillion USD in overseas direct investment in the US for 2024 [9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Despite expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US stock market remains near historical highs, and the 10-year Treasury yield is stable above 4%, indicating a resilient economic outlook [4][6]. - The dollar index stabilized around 96 points in early July, suggesting a halt to the previous downward trend of the dollar against major currencies [4]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics and Trade Relations - The article highlights the potential for the dollar to appreciate further if trade negotiations with China lead to a reduction in the US trade deficit, which would increase demand for the dollar [9][10]. - The "best tariff theory" suggests that increased tariffs on Japanese goods could lead to a stronger dollar, as the demand for yen would decrease, further contributing to the yen's depreciation [10].