Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference is highly anticipated, particularly for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's final speech, with expectations leaning towards a dovish stance and potential interest rate cuts due to recent weak employment data [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following signals from the Trump administration regarding interest rate cuts, U.S. real estate stocks have seen a preemptive rise, with the Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index climbing above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical bullish trend [6]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual homebuilders like D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp. rising by 5.8% and 9.2% respectively [6]. - Notably, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, reflecting confidence in the housing sector [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is set for a review, with potential changes to be implemented after Powell's term ends in May 2026 [8]. - There is speculation that Powell may abolish the "average inflation targeting" framework, which was designed during a low-inflation period, in favor of a singular 2% inflation target due to the changing economic landscape post-pandemic [8]. - Powell hinted at the possibility of this change in a May speech, acknowledging that future inflation volatility may be significantly higher than in the previous decade [8].
何时降息?特朗普再度炮轰鲍威尔
第一财经·2025-08-20 10:02