“二二三四”俄乌和平路线图

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of upcoming meetings in the Russia-Ukraine peace process, highlighting three key meetings: the Russia-Ukraine leaders' meeting, the US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral meeting, and the US-Russia-Ukraine-EU quadrilateral meeting [3][6]. Group 1: Upcoming Meetings - The first milestone event in the peace process is the meeting between US and Russian leaders in Anchorage, Alaska, scheduled for August 15, 2025 [2]. - Following this, the Russia-Ukraine leaders' meeting is crucial, but its prospects remain unclear [5]. - The sequence of meetings is structured as "two-two-three-four," representing the bilateral and multilateral nature of the discussions [3]. Group 2: Attitudes and Positions - Ukrainian President Zelensky has expressed a willingness to meet with Putin, while Trump is also actively working to arrange this meeting [6]. - Russia has not provided clear signals regarding the meeting, with officials emphasizing the need for thorough preparation and respect for Russia's security interests [7][6]. - Zelensky's firm stance on territorial issues during his meeting with Trump did not align with Russian expectations, which could hinder the potential for a leaders' meeting [8]. Group 3: Implications of Meeting Outcomes - If the Russia-Ukraine leaders' meeting does not occur, subsequent trilateral and quadrilateral meetings will be jeopardized, stalling the peace process [9]. - The ongoing military actions from both sides may influence the negotiation dynamics, potentially creating space for Trump's mediation efforts [10][11]. Group 4: Role of the EU - The EU is expected to be the last party to join the negotiation table, as resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a prerequisite for discussing European security [12]. - The EU's insistence on being included in the peace process appears somewhat misplaced, as the focus remains on direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [13].