居民存款“搬家入市”？机构：潜在入市规模超5万亿

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3731 to reach a ten-year high, is largely driven by the influx of incremental funds from residents moving their savings into the stock market [5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a ten-year high of 3731, with trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [5]. - As of the end of July, the total market capitalization of stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 94.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1 trillion yuan from the previous month [5]. Group 2: Resident Savings and Stock Market Correlation - Resident savings balance stood at 160.91 trillion yuan at the end of July, showing a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan from the previous month [5]. - The ratio of resident savings to total stock market capitalization is currently at 1.7, indicating a significant negative correlation between resident savings and stock market value [5]. - Historically, this ratio has ranged between 1.1 and 2.0, suggesting that the current high level of 1.7 indicates potential for further funds moving into the market [5]. Group 3: Drivers of Fund Movement - The initial signs of savings moving into the stock market were observed in June and July, driven by factors such as increased market risk appetite, alleviation of "asset scarcity," weakening of the US dollar leading to the return of overseas funds, and weak real investment [5]. - Potential funds that could enter the market from resident savings are estimated to be between 5 to 7 trillion yuan, which may exceed the amounts seen during previous market rallies in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 [5].