一国官宣：不降息！

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a slight decrease in inflation rates over the past year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in Israel for July was reported at 3.1%, which is slightly above the target upper limit, but forecasts suggest it will return to the target range in the coming months [3]. - The government has decided to raise the fiscal deficit ceiling to 5.2%, indicating potential challenges in managing economic stability [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The central bank highlighted various risks that could accelerate inflation or deviate from targets, including geopolitical developments, demand growth coupled with supply constraints, and deteriorating global trade conditions [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is expected to impact economic activity, with potential scenarios leading to increased supply constraints and slower economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The Bank of Israel's Governor, Amir Yaron, expressed a desire to lower interest rates three times next year to reach 3.75%, although the timing for such reductions remains uncertain [4]. - A lower risk premium could lead to a rapid expansion in demand, and the appreciation of the shekel is anticipated to help reduce inflation [5]. Group 4: Investment Climate - The Israeli economy faces uncertainties due to market and technological investment conditions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, which pose risks to the economy [6]. - The reliance of Israel's technology sector on U.S. venture capital funding makes it particularly vulnerable to these uncertainties, affecting overall economic performance [6].