Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July FOMC meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on monetary policy due to high inflation risks stemming from trade tariffs, with most policymakers preferring to wait for more evidence before making any rate changes [2][4][5]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC voted 9-2 to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple Fed officials voted against the decision [4]. - Officials engaged in active debates regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the limitations of their policy stance, with a general expectation of short-term inflation increases [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, a weak U.S. labor market report showed non-farm payrolls significantly below expectations, with a rise in unemployment and a drop in labor force participation to its lowest level since late 2022 [7]. - The derivative market reflects an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by the weak labor data and concerns over inflation from tariffs [7][9]. Group 3: Future Policy Considerations - Economists suggest that the mixed inflation data from July makes the Fed uncomfortable, as tariffs may continue to exert upward pressure on inflation in the coming months [8]. - Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the annual economic symposium is anticipated to clarify the Fed's stance on balancing employment protection against inflation concerns [8][9].
美联储会议纪要:降息未获广泛支持
第一财经·2025-08-20 23:49