日经中文网·2025-08-21 03:07Core Insights - The global EV battery production capacity is projected to reach 3930 GWh by 2025, significantly exceeding the demand of 1161 GWh, resulting in a supply-demand ratio of 3.4 times [2][4] - China's EV battery production continues to increase, while major battery manufacturers in Japan and South Korea are scaling back their investment plans due to slowing EV market growth [2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to persist, with supply exceeding demand by over three times until 2026 and projected to remain at 2.4 times by 2030 [4] - Chinese companies hold a dominant market share of 70% in the global EV battery sector, with CATL and BYD leading the market [4] Group 2: Regional Insights - In North America, the supply surplus is particularly severe, with projections indicating a ratio of 4.8 times by 2025 [5] - The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has incentivized EV production in North America, leading to increased battery investments, but the slowdown in EV demand has complicated these efforts [5] Group 3: Company Strategies - Panasonic has postponed the full operation of its new EV battery factory in the U.S. due to low sales from major client Tesla, indicating a cautious approach to scaling production [5] - Automakers like Toyota and Honda are delaying their battery factory projects in response to market conditions, reflecting a broader trend of reduced investment in the sector [5] Group 4: Price Trends and Industry Changes - The average price of batteries is expected to drop to $111 per kWh in 2024, a 26% decrease from 2023, with further declines anticipated by 2026 [5] - The battery industry is experiencing consolidation, with companies like Northvolt filing for bankruptcy, while Chinese manufacturers continue to invest and expand their presence in Europe [5]