沪指再创10年新高，A股“系统性慢牛”来了？

Core Viewpoint - The recent bullish trend in A-shares is driven by a combination of global favorable factors and domestic resilience, with significant capital inflow and policy support playing crucial roles [1][2]. Group 1: Global Factors - The A-share market has been positively influenced by a decrease in policy uncertainty following trade agreements between the U.S. and several countries, which has improved market sentiment [1]. - The U.S. fiscal policy has shifted dramatically, with the "Big and Beautiful" plan expected to result in a tax reduction of up to $4 trillion over the next decade, supporting global risk assets [1]. - A nearly 10% decline in the U.S. dollar index since the beginning of the year has facilitated capital outflow from the U.S. to A-shares and other emerging markets [1][2]. Group 2: Domestic Factors - China's GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year has outpaced other major economies, enhancing the attractiveness of A-shares [2]. - The Chinese government's proactive measures, including debt reduction and reforms, have effectively lowered systemic risks, providing a solid foundation for a long-term market reversal [2]. - There has been a significant increase in margin trading balances, indicating accelerated entry of leveraged funds into the market, alongside substantial foreign investment from global hedge funds [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The sustainability of the current bullish trend in A-shares will depend on external factors, particularly any changes in U.S. policy or a strengthening of the dollar, which could tighten global liquidity [3]. - The relatively stable and loose domestic environment is expected to support financing and active thematic trading in the short term, as long as there are no major fluctuations in the macroeconomic landscape [3].