周五晚上，他或许以一声巨响谢幕

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is highly anticipated, as it marks his eighth and final address at this significant event, with potential implications for financial markets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Past Speeches - Historical data indicates that after Powell's previous seven speeches at Jackson Hole, the average increase in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 21 basis points, while the S&P 500 index averaged a decline of nearly 2% [1]. - In 2022, following Powell's speech warning about the potential "pain" from tightening policies, the S&P 500 index plummeted by 12%, the dollar surged by 5%, and the 10-year Treasury yield skyrocketed by 75 basis points [1]. - Significant increases in bond yields were also observed after speeches in 2018, 2021, and 2023, with the 2023 speech leading to a rise of over 20 basis points in yields [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Context - Market expectations for the Fed's September monetary policy are intensifying, with an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, despite inflation remaining approximately 1 percentage point above the Fed's 2% target [4]. - The theme of this year's Jackson Hole conference focuses on the labor market's transformation, with analysts noting that a low unemployment rate does not necessarily indicate a hawkish stance from the Fed [4]. - Historical trends suggest that a rising unemployment rate could prompt the Fed to shift towards a more accommodative policy quickly [4]. Group 3: Powell's Final Address - This speech is significant as it is Powell's last before his term ends in May next year, occurring during a tumultuous period for the Fed [4][5]. - There is speculation that Powell may use this opportunity to reflect on his tenure and the lessons learned from the pandemic, particularly regarding inflation control [5][7]. - The pressure from former President Trump regarding interest rate cuts adds complexity to Powell's potential messaging during this farewell address [5][7].