告别人工智能泡沫，准备迎接崩盘

Core Viewpoint - The release of GPT-5 by OpenAI has been disappointing, revealing that it is harder to use and performs worse than its predecessors, leading to skepticism about the AI industry's promises [2][3][6] Group 1: AI Industry Performance - AI companies are currently propping up the U.S. economy, but this situation resembles a bubble, with significant investments made without any AI lab achieving profitability [4][6] - The hype surrounding AI is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, where companies falsely claimed to be "internet companies" to boost stock prices [4][6] - Nvidia, a key chip manufacturer for AI research, is compared to Intel in the 1990s, as it plays a leading role in supporting the current stock market rally [5] Group 2: Public Perception and Expectations - The disappointing launch of GPT-5 has led to a realization of the extent to which the AI industry relies on hype, with users expressing frustration over the model's performance [7][8] - Despite the setbacks, the hype machine continues to operate, with organizations predicting significant AI advancements by 2027, which may be overly optimistic [9][10] - The belief in "scaling up" AI technology to achieve breakthroughs is challenged by GPT-5's performance, raising concerns about the massive capital investments required for data and processing capabilities [10] Group 3: Economic Implications - If AI's promises turn out to be illusory, investors may face significant losses, as the current situation mirrors past market bubbles [6][10] - Predictions of AI leading to substantial productivity gains have not materialized, with some economists forecasting minimal growth contributions from AI in the coming decade [13] - The marketing of AI as a transformative technology is critiqued, emphasizing that it is more of a buzzword than a scientific or engineering term, which could mislead investors and the public [13]