更加积极财政政策陆续落地

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in China, which is expected to support stable economic growth amid various challenges [3][4]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months of this year, the total revenue from broad fiscal sources was approximately 15.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year [3]. - Broad fiscal expenditure reached about 21.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.3%, significantly outpacing the economic growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit, which exceeded revenue by about 5.6 trillion yuan, marked a year-on-year increase of 47% [3]. Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue saw a decline of 3.5% in the first quarter, but subsequent months showed growth, leading to a reduction in the decline to just 0.3% over the first seven months [4]. - Stable growth in VAT and a surge in securities transaction stamp duty contributed to the recovery in tax revenue, reflecting an overall improvement in economic conditions [4]. Land Transfer Revenue - The revenue from land transfers amounted to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, although the rate of decline has been narrowing [6]. Government Debt and Financing - Net financing from government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [8]. - The government is accelerating bond issuance to maintain fiscal expenditure levels, particularly in key areas such as social welfare, education, and healthcare [8]. Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting in late July emphasized the need for continued macroeconomic policy support, including more proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies [8]. - Despite concerns about potential reductions in fiscal spending in the second half of the year, estimates suggest that the adjusted fiscal expenditure growth rate could remain between 4.1% and 6.7%, aligning with economic growth targets of 4.7% to 4.8% [9]. Future Fiscal Strategy - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that there are sufficient reserve tools and policy space to respond to uncertainties in the economic environment [10]. - The focus will remain on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations to ensure economic development and social stability [10].