今晚10点！鲍威尔重磅演讲来袭

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, focusing on potential insights regarding interest rate cuts and the economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The U.S. labor market shows signs of distress, while GDP performance remains strong, indicating a mixed economic environment [1]. - Inflation appears manageable for consumers, but wholesale producers face different challenges [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Following weak July non-farm payroll data, the market's expectation for a September rate cut surged to 100%, but subsequent PPI inflation data and cautious signals from Fed officials tempered these expectations [1]. - Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September stands at 75%, with a 25% chance of maintaining the current rate [2]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes of Powell's Speech - Scenario 1: More Hawkish Stance If Powell indicates a more conservative rate path than expected, it could lead to a market sell-off as investors may reduce positions due to tighter capital availability for reinvestment and acquisitions [5]. - Scenario 2: More Dovish Stance A more lenient rate path could boost corporate earnings growth and potentially lift the stock market, although this outcome is considered less likely [6][7]. - Scenario 3: Expected Stance If Powell confirms the anticipated rate cut in September and another by year-end, market reactions may be muted, with potential for a "sell the news" scenario as this outcome is already priced in [8].