【乘联分会论坛】8月狭义乘用车零售预计194.0万辆，新能源预计110.0万辆

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in July experienced a temporary slowdown due to seasonal factors and the transition period of the vehicle replacement policy, but is expected to stabilize and grow in August with the resumption of subsidies [2][3]. Group 1: July Market Review - In July, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 1.844 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.6% [2]. - Retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles were 987,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 12.0% and a penetration rate of 53.5% [2]. Group 2: August Market Outlook - The new batch of subsidy funds has been allocated, leading to the resumption of vehicle replacement subsidies across various provinces, which is expected to stabilize the market in August [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Recent manufacturer surveys indicate that the retail targets of leading manufacturers, which account for nearly 80% of the total market, have increased by approximately 5% month-on-month, remaining stable year-on-year [4]. - The estimated total retail market for narrow-sense passenger vehicles in August is around 1.94 million units, representing a month-on-month growth of 6.2% and a year-on-year growth of 2.0% [4]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of August, the average daily retail was 45,200 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% but a month-on-month increase of 5.6% [5]. - The second week saw a recovery in the market with average daily retail reaching 59,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1% [5]. - The estimated average daily sales for the third week is 66,700 units, with a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [5]. Group 5: August Market Growth - The market is showing signs of stable growth in August, with the end of discounts and improved price stability due to policy regulations and industry self-discipline [7]. - The total retail market for narrow-sense passenger vehicles in August is projected to be around 1.94 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach approximately 1.1 million units and a penetration rate of 56.7% [7].