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Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signals potential interest rate cut in September, indicating a shift in economic risk balance and the need for policy adjustment [4][10][19] Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy shows resilience amid significant policy changes, with the labor market close to maximum employment and inflation down from pandemic highs [15] - Recent employment reports indicate a slowdown, with non-farm payrolls averaging only 35,000 over the past three months, significantly below the expected 168,000 for 2024 [16][18] - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.2%, remaining historically low, but the labor market shows signs of a "peculiar balance" due to significant slowdowns in both supply and demand [16][18] Inflation and Policy Framework - Inflation risks are currently tilted upwards, while employment risks are leaning downwards, creating a challenging scenario for policymakers [5][19] - The Fed has revised its policy framework, removing previous commitments to average inflation targeting and maximum employment considerations [6][19] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.9% year-on-year, with tariffs contributing to price increases, indicating a potential one-time rise in price levels rather than sustained inflation [18] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, the market reacted dovishly, with the dollar index dropping approximately 0.5% and the two-year Treasury yield falling by 9 basis points to 3.70% [8][10] - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to about 90% from 75% prior to Powell's speech, with traders pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year [10] - U.S. stock markets saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising over 700 points and the Nasdaq increasing nearly 2% [11][12]