深夜重磅！鲍威尔暗示美联储可能降息，美股齐涨

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September due to rising risks in the employment market, as indicated by Chairman Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Powell noted that despite high tariffs and tightened immigration policies, the U.S. economy shows resilience, but there is a significant slowdown in the labor market and economic growth [5]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, with tariffs contributing to increased prices for certain goods [5]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate levels are now closer to "neutral" compared to last year, indicating a cautious approach to future risk assessments [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is open to adjusting its policy stance in response to changes in economic outlook and risks, particularly concerning employment and inflation [5]. - The revised long-term goals and monetary policy strategy statement from the Federal Reserve includes the removal of the "average inflation targeting" framework, returning to a more flexible inflation target [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged, with the probability rising from 75.5% to nearly 90% [7]. - U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.82%, Nasdaq up 1.83%, and S&P 500 up 1.52% [7]. - The U.S. dollar index fell below the 98 mark, with the offshore RMB and other non-U.S. currencies appreciating against the dollar [9].