深夜，全线爆发！鲍威尔，重磅发声！

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The current U.S. economy remains resilient, with the labor market nearing full employment, but inflation is still high despite a decline from pandemic peaks. GDP growth is expected to slow from 2.5% in the same period last year to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, facing structural challenges from tariffs and immigration policies [1][6] - Powell emphasized that the labor market is in a "special balance" state, where both labor supply and demand are cooling, leading to a significant decrease in the threshold for new job creation needed to maintain stable unemployment rates. However, this balance is fragile, and the risk of rising unemployment is increasing [6] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The short-term monetary policy is characterized by a "cautious approach," with the policy interest rate now closer to neutral levels, approximately 100 basis points higher than a year ago, and within a restrictive range. The need to balance inflationary pressures and employment risks is highlighted [1][6][7] - Powell stated that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has no preset path and will be entirely data-driven, based on economic data, outlook, and risk balance [7] Group 3: Monetary Policy Framework Assessment - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of "maximum employment + stable prices" remains unchanged, with the framework originating from a 2012 consensus statement. The framework was first revised in 2020 and is set for another review in 2025 [9] - The adjustment of the monetary policy framework is attributed to significant changes in the economic environment, particularly the unprecedented inflation post-COVID-19, which deviated from the low inflation and effective lower bound (ELB) constraints anticipated in 2020 [9][10] - The revised framework maintains a long-term inflation target of 2%, deemed low enough not to impact household and business decisions while allowing for counter-cyclical policy adjustments. However, no specific numerical target for "maximum employment" is set due to its measurement challenges [10]