Core Viewpoint - The coal market, particularly coking coal and coke, is experiencing a phase of price adjustment after significant increases, but supply constraints are expected to support a bullish outlook in the short term [3][4][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - After a significant price surge, coking coal and coke prices have seen a decline since mid-August, with the main coking coal futures contract dropping by 14% from its recent peak [6][11]. - The current market for coking coal shows a stable price trend, with main transaction prices in Shanxi and Shandong regions reported at 1400-1450 CNY/ton and 960-990 CNY/ton respectively [8][11]. - The seventh round of price increases for coke has commenced, with plans to raise prices by 50-75 CNY/ton depending on the type of coke [11][14]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side constraints are anticipated due to policies aimed at reducing production capacity and inspections of coal mine capacities, leading to a potential tightening of supply in the coal industry [8][13]. - Current operating rates for independent coking enterprises are at 74.65%, slightly down from the previous period, indicating a slight reduction in supply [13]. - Steel mills are currently experiencing decent profitability, but there are indications of reduced purchasing activity, particularly in Hebei province, which may affect demand for coke [13][14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the coking coal market will maintain a strong performance in the short term due to supply constraints and low inventory levels at both coking plants and steel mills [12][14]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of price stability or slight increases in the near future, despite potential pressures from environmental regulations and production limits [12][14].
焦煤焦炭,尾盘异动!第七轮调涨,启动!
证券时报·2025-08-22 15:38