中国发美国海运费下跌，备货需求疲软

Core Viewpoint - The container shipping demand from China to the U.S. is currently weak, with freight rates plummeting to their lowest levels in over a year and a half, primarily due to reduced shipping volumes and the impact of high U.S. tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Freight Rate Trends - Container shipping freight rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast have dropped to $1,759 per 40-foot container as of August 15, down from a peak of $5,606 in early June [3]. - The freight rates have fallen below pre-agreement levels, reaching lows not seen since December 2021, indicating a significant decline in demand [3][6]. - The shipping rates from Shanghai to the U.S. East Coast have also decreased to their lowest levels since the end of 2023 [3]. Group 2: Shipping Volume and Demand - The shipping volume from China to the U.S. has decreased by 25% year-on-year in the first week of August, reflecting a broader trend of reduced demand [3][4]. - The U.S. National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 20% year-on-year decline in container imports for September, with expectations of continued decreases through the end of the year, projecting a 5.6% reduction for the entire year compared to 2024 [6]. - Despite a temporary increase in shipping volume in July, the overall demand remains below last year's levels, with a reported 8% decrease in year-on-year shipping volume from China to the U.S. [9]. Group 3: Regional Shipping Dynamics - Southeast Asia has seen a 34% increase in shipping volume to the U.S., with significant growth from countries like Vietnam (34%), India (31%), and Malaysia (70%), indicating a shift in sourcing from China to other regions [10]. - The overall shipping volume from Asia to the U.S. increased by 1% in July, driven by a recovery in Chinese exports and active Southeast Asian exports [9]. - The return of vessels previously allocated to U.S. routes has led to a normalization of supply, causing freight rates on European and South American routes to decline as well [8].