Core Viewpoint - The article highlights two positive developments: the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September and Canada's decision to eliminate several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, which has contributed to a significant rise in U.S. stock markets. Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cut - The U.S. stock market experienced a substantial surge, with the Dow Jones rising nearly 1000 points, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's shift to a dovish stance has solidified market bets on an imminent rate cut, with a 91% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME Group's FedWatch tool [7][11] - Powell indicated that the stability in the labor market allows for a cautious approach to policy adjustments, suggesting that the Fed may not wait for perfect inflation data before acting [8] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Analysts believe that Powell's comments have opened the door for a September rate cut, with expectations that the Fed may prioritize labor market conditions over inflation risks [9][10] - The market's immediate reaction reflects a preference for lower interest rates, with expectations of continued upward trends in stock prices following Powell's dovish signals [10] - Concerns remain about the balance the Fed must strike between addressing inflation and supporting the labor market, as premature or excessive rate cuts could exacerbate inflation [8][10] Group 3: Canada's Tariff Policy Changes - Canada plans to eliminate retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of U.S. consumer goods that comply with the USMCA, aiming to ease tensions with the U.S. government [12][14] - This policy shift is seen as a significant change for Canada, which had previously taken a strong stance against U.S. trade protectionism [19] - However, Canada may retain tariffs on U.S. steel, aluminum, and automobiles, indicating a selective approach to tariff adjustments [17][18]
今夜,狂飙
中国基金报·2025-08-22 23:53