“4.65%利息都不要了！”大额存单转让潮再现

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the large-denomination certificate of deposit (CD) transfer market indicates a shift in investor behavior, with many moving funds from savings to capital markets in search of higher returns as the A-share market heats up [3][4][5]. Group 1: Large-Denomination CD Market - The large-denomination CD transfer market has become active again, with a private bank inviting clients with over 500,000 yuan in assets to purchase CDs with interest rates of 2.65% for three years and 2.4% for two years [4]. - There is a notable increase in transfer listings on social media, with rates exceeding 3% for some products, indicating a competitive market where sellers must offer discounts to attract buyers [5]. - The highest transfer rate observed recently was 4.65% for a CD with a remaining term of 1300 days, while new issuances offer lower rates, highlighting the attractiveness of older CDs [4][5]. Group 2: Shift in Investment Behavior - There is a clear trend of residents moving wealth from financial products to capital markets, driven by the strong performance of the stock market, with many clients redeeming their financial products to invest in stocks [6][9]. - The average annualized yield of bank wealth management products fell to 1.90% in July 2025, down 72 basis points from the previous month, indicating a decline in traditional investment returns [9]. - Historical patterns show that low interest rates and strong capital market performance are key drivers of deposit migration, with significant movements observed in 2006-2007, 2009, 2012-2015, 2021, and now in 2024-2025 [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while retail investors are beginning to enter the market, institutional investors still hold significant pricing power, which may lead to a "herding effect" among retail investors as they participate indirectly [10]. - There is a consensus that large-scale retail entry into the market has not yet occurred, indicating potential for further market growth [10]. - If retail investors do enter the market en masse, it could signal a rapid increase in stock prices, potentially marking the end of the current market rally [10].