“反内卷”题材轮动，化工、建材等板块或迎结构性机会

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries, highlighting the importance of capacity clearing and the potential for structural opportunities in traditional sectors like agriculture and chemicals as they adapt to changing market conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance and Trends - The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are experiencing a "cooling down" phase, with polysilicon futures prices dropping from a historical high of 55,000 yuan/ton to 51,400 yuan/ton, indicating a significant decrease in market activity [4]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices have also declined from over 90,000 yuan/ton to around 78,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a broader trend of reduced short-term investment in these sectors [4]. - The overall profitability of the lithium battery industry is under pressure, with a projected 2.8% decline in revenue for 2024, despite a 32.6% increase in lithium battery shipments to 1,175 GWh [5]. Group 2: Structural Opportunities - Traditional industries such as chemicals and agriculture are emerging as more certain structural opportunities due to their ability to differentiate and restructure supply chains in response to the "anti-involution" trend [2][6]. - The chemical sector is facing challenges, with nearly 25% of companies projected to incur losses in 2024, prompting a consensus on the need for policy-driven capacity elimination and the cessation of price wars [9]. - The agricultural sector is also adapting, with a decline in the number of breeding sows, indicating a potential reduction in excess capacity as the government implements measures to promote industry consolidation [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Impact - The A-share market has seen a rotation of "anti-involution" themes, with significant gains in sectors like chemicals (16%), building materials (15%), coal (10%), and agriculture (8%) since July [2][8]. - The article emphasizes that the "anti-involution" policy aims to reshape competition in various industries through capacity clearing and price guidance, which is expected to lead to improved profitability and market conditions [8][9]. - Analysts predict that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies could boost industry profitability by 53% over the next two years, with certain stocks already showing an 8% increase since the policy announcement [9].