2025年中国氢燃料电池汽车市场预测

Core Viewpoint - The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with a 50% year-on-year decrease in sales during the first seven months of 2025, indicating a deep adjustment period for the industry [3]. Market Status Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the market showed dual characteristics of "weakened policy drive" and "prominent structural contradictions" [3]. - From January to July 2025, only 2,318 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles were registered, down from 3,476 in the same period of 2024 [3]. - Cumulatively, 30,565 hydrogen vehicles have been promoted since 2017, with an actual retention of 24,582 vehicles, considering a five-year warranty period [3]. - Among the promoted vehicles, approximately 17,433 were in demonstration city clusters, accounting for 70.9% of the total [3]. Demonstration City Cluster Market Forecast - Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Cluster: Target of 5,300 vehicles, with a theoretical completion rate exceeding 100%. Growth in major cities was limited to 368 vehicles from January to July 2025 [6]. - Shanghai Cluster: Target of 5,000 vehicles, with a completion rate of 90.4%. Major cities saw a growth of 101 vehicles in the same period [7]. - Guangdong Cluster: Target of 10,000 vehicles, with a completion rate of only 28.1%. The region faces challenges such as provincial coordination and hydrogen source shortages [8]. - Hebei Cluster: Target of 7,710 vehicles, with a completion rate of 61.9%. Major cities saw a growth of 100 vehicles [9]. - Henan Cluster: Target of 5,000 vehicles, with a completion rate of 69.4%. Major city Zhengzhou saw a growth of 122 vehicles [10]. 2025 Market Forecast Breakdown - Five Major Demonstration City Clusters: Expected to deliver 5,095 vehicles based on completion rates [12]. - Newly Added Six Cities: Expected to deliver 2,500 vehicles, assuming a 50% completion rate [12]. - Non-Demonstration Cities: Expected to deliver between 1,500 to 2,000 vehicles, with Chengdu projected to contribute 1,000 vehicles in 2025 [12]. Enterprise Market Forecast Breakdown - Leading domestic system enterprises are expected to deliver over 8,500 vehicles, with specific plans from various companies: - Guohua Technology: 2,000 vehicles - Dongfang Hydrogen: 800 vehicles - Weishi Energy: 800 vehicles - Yuntai and Hyundai: nearly 1,000 vehicles each - Huafeng: 500 vehicles - Reshaping Guohong: 1,500 vehicles from three established companies [14]. Overall Market Forecast for 2025 - Conservative Scenario: Less than 6,500 vehicles due to ongoing local financial constraints and unresolved structural contradictions [15]. - Neutral Scenario: 7,000 to 8,000 vehicles with normal progress in existing city clusters and new city contributions [15]. - Aggressive Scenario: More than 10,000 vehicles if policies are extended and Guangdong performs better than expected [15]. - The market performance may fluctuate by ±40% due to policy adjustments, with Guangdong's progress being a critical variable [15].