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HPV疫苗龙头,净利骤降127%
21世纪经济报道·2025-08-25 08:58

Core Viewpoint - The HPV vaccine industry has rapidly transitioned from a blue ocean to a red ocean, facing significant challenges due to oversupply and declining demand, leading to substantial revenue and profit declines for major companies like Zhifei Biological and Wantai Biological [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The HPV vaccine market is experiencing a "winter" characterized by a rational return of demand after previous oversupply, compounded by intensified competition [2]. - Major companies have reported significant revenue declines, with Zhifei Biological's revenue dropping 73.06% to 4.919 billion yuan and a net loss of 597 million yuan, while Wantai Biological reported an 38.25% revenue decline to 844 million yuan and a net loss of 144 million yuan [1][3]. - The market's supply-demand relationship has fundamentally reversed, indicating a structural adjustment within the industry [1]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The cumulative vaccination rate for HPV among women aged 9-45 in China is nearing 20%, suggesting that the primary target demographic has largely completed vaccinations, with remaining unvaccinated individuals often constrained by economic factors [4]. - The current product structure is imbalanced, with a predominance of two-valent vaccines and a reliance on imported nine-valent vaccines, which limits the growth potential of domestic vaccines [4]. - The price competition has intensified, with two-valent vaccines priced between 200-300 yuan, while imported nine-valent vaccines have also seen price reductions through subsidies and group purchase discounts [2][4]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The supply side faces common issues, including high inventory levels due to previous overproduction and a lag in research and development compared to international competitors [5]. - Domestic vaccine companies are behind in clinical progress for male indications, which limits their market opportunities as international competitors advance [5][10]. - The public's awareness and acceptance of male HPV vaccination remain low, creating a barrier to market growth despite the potential for significant demand [10]. Group 4: Future Growth Opportunities - Expanding into the male HPV vaccination market presents a significant opportunity, with the potential to double the target population from approximately 300 million women to over 600 million men [12]. - Companies are also focusing on international expansion, with Wantai Biological's vaccines already approved in 21 countries, highlighting the global market potential [12][13]. - The industry is urged to enhance public education on HPV vaccination, particularly among men, to foster a broader acceptance and understanding of the vaccine's benefits [14].