若降息，美股有望开启新行情

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the stock market, highlighting historical trends that suggest a positive correlation between rate cuts and stock performance [3][5]. Historical Data - Historical analysis shows that in the past 11 instances where the Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts after a pause of 5-12 months, the S&P 500 index rose in 10 cases, with an average increase of 12.9% over the following year [5][6]. - The only exception to this trend occurred during the 2001 internet bubble burst [5]. Market Reactions - Following Fed Chair Powell's dovish signals, major stock indices rose over 1%, and the dollar index fell, indicating strong market reactions to the prospect of rate cuts [7]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is estimated at 85%, with an 80% chance of at least two rate cuts this year [7][10]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic indicators, including the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the August non-farm payroll report, are crucial for assessing the Fed's policy direction [9]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising to 1.972 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating potential layoffs [6][9]. Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that if the Fed lowers rates, the breadth of the stock market rebound could expand, as lower rates typically encourage investors to seek higher returns [10][11]. - Small-cap stocks, particularly sensitive to borrowing costs, may benefit significantly from a lower interest rate environment, as evidenced by the Russell 2000 index outperforming major indices recently [11]. Sector Performance - The technology sector has seen a rise in expected earnings multiples, but concerns about overvaluation persist, especially with 95% of companies reportedly not seeing returns on AI investments [10][11]. - Despite recent sell-offs in tech stocks, the overall market breadth remains stable, indicating a search for new leaders in sectors like industrials, energy, and financials [10].