崩了！突发黑天鹅

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the French stock market, driven by political instability and the potential collapse of the French government due to a confidence vote initiated by Prime Minister Francois Bayrou [2][3]. Political Instability - Prime Minister Bayrou announced a confidence vote that could lead to the government's downfall, prompting investors to sell French assets and increasing hedging against political uncertainty [3]. - Opposition parties, including the National Rally, La France Insoumise, and the Greens, have expressed intentions to vote against the motion, while the Socialist Party also indicated non-support [3]. - If the majority of lawmakers oppose Bayrou, he will be forced to submit his government's resignation, highlighting President Macron's precarious position [3]. Economic Impact - The yield on French 10-year government bonds rose by 9 basis points to 3.51%, leading the global bond market decline, with the spread between French and German borrowing costs widening to 75 basis points, the highest since April [3]. - France's borrowing costs are now higher than those of Greece and Portugal, only slightly lower than Italy [3][4]. - Bayrou's proposed austerity measures, including a €44 billion (approximately $51 billion) spending cut and tax increase plan, face significant opposition, which he argues is crucial to avoid a public finance disaster [4]. Public Sentiment and Government Response - Bayrou's approval ratings have plummeted to the lowest level among all prime ministers during Macron's presidency, despite efforts to engage the public through a YouTube channel explaining fiscal policies [5]. - The French government is currently facing the widest budget deficit in the Eurozone, with a projected deficit of 5.4% of GDP for the year [4].