刚刚！猛烈抛售，发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, driven by rising yields and expectations of increased fiscal stimulus measures, alongside persistent inflation pressures that may lead to interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [2][5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On August 26, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds reached 1.627%, the highest level since October 2008, while 10-year bond futures fell to their lowest since 2009 [2][4]. - The 30-year government bond yield also surged to 3.235%, surpassing the previous high of 3.2% set in July [5]. - Concerns over Japan's fiscal discipline have intensified following the ruling coalition's losses in the upper house elections, leading to expectations of increased bond issuance [5][6]. Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - Persistent inflation in Japan is diminishing the appeal of fixed-income assets and reinforcing market expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Bank of Japan [6][10]. - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that rising wages are creating conditions for potential interest rate hikes, with analysts predicting at least a 25 basis point increase later this year [2][10]. - Despite a slight cooling in July's core CPI, which rose by 3.1% year-on-year, inflation remains above the central bank's target, sustaining the market's rate hike expectations [10][11]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - There has been a notable decline in foreign demand for Japanese government bonds, with net purchases of 10-year and longer bonds dropping to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, only one-third of June's figures [7][8]. - The reduction in foreign investment is raising concerns about potential instability in the long end of the yield curve, especially as domestic demand from financial institutions is also waning [8][11]. Group 4: Budget Implications - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to request a budget of 32.3865 trillion yen (approximately 1.57 trillion RMB) for debt servicing in the 2026 fiscal year, reflecting an increase of about 4 trillion yen compared to the previous year's record budget [8]. - The "interest payment" portion of the debt servicing is expected to rise by 24% to 13.0435 trillion yen, while the "debt repayment" portion will increase by 9.3% to 19.3104 trillion yen [8].