中央层面明确碳市场路线图，释放哪些信号

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent guidelines issued by the central government regarding the establishment and expansion of a national carbon market, emphasizing the transition from intensity control to total volume control and the shift from free to paid quotas [3][5][8]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Development - The central government has outlined a clear roadmap for building a national carbon market, aiming for comprehensive coverage of major industrial sectors by 2027 and a fully established trading market by 2030 [3][5]. - The guidelines aim to clarify the role of various participants in the carbon market, addressing previous uncertainties [3]. Transition from Intensity to Total Volume Control - The current system is based on intensity control with free quota distribution linked to production levels, but this will shift to total volume control during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [5][6]. - By 2027, industries with stable carbon emissions will be prioritized for total volume control, with a gradual increase in the proportion of paid quotas [5][6]. Carbon Pricing and Market Dynamics - The national carbon market has seen a price fluctuation, with the closing price at 69.69 yuan per ton, down from an average of 72 yuan per ton [10]. - The carbon price has risen from an initial 48 yuan per ton to a peak of 105 yuan per ton, indicating a trend towards higher prices as the market expands [10]. International Cooperation and Market Integration - The guidelines encourage participation in international carbon market mechanisms and the establishment of standards for global cooperation [12][13]. - There is a potential for Chinese companies to leverage their carbon market experiences in international projects, enhancing China's influence in global carbon markets [12]. Future Directions - The guidelines suggest a need for more high-quality carbon credits and a gradual opening of the market to financial institutions to optimize resource allocation [11][12]. - The focus will be on ensuring that companies do not face excessive costs while promoting effective actions towards emission reduction [11].