【国信电子胡剑团队|0825周观点】重视“三重周期”共振下半导体的估值扩张弹性

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of the "three-cycle" resonance in the semiconductor industry, highlighting the potential for valuation expansion elasticity [3]. Market Performance - In the past week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49%, while the electronic sector increased by 8.95%. Within this sector, semiconductors surged by 12.26%, and components rose by 1.68%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw increases of 1.89% and 0.03%, respectively, while Taiwan's information technology sector declined by 3.35% [3]. Industry Trends - The strong rise in computing power in North America has become a major sentiment driver, particularly benefiting the switch and server supply chains due to changes in network architecture driven by ASIC trends. This has led to significant incremental growth in these industries [3]. - Supply chains have recently revised upward their shipment expectations for NVIDIA's GB series products for 2026, indicating that profit elasticity in the server assembly segment will gradually become evident [3]. - TSMC anticipates sustained strong demand for AI, with moderate recovery in non-AI demand, which is expected to contribute to annual revenue growth [3].