A股“选中”寒武纪，既是一种赌注，也是一种信念

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the soaring valuation of Cambricon, a Chinese AI chip company, amidst a mix of capital enthusiasm and skepticism, highlighting its potential to reshape the Chinese tech stock landscape [4][6]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Performance - Goldman Sachs raised Cambricon's target price to 1835 yuan, a 50% increase, suggesting a market value close to 770 billion yuan, with a bullish scenario predicting a price of 3934 yuan and a market cap of 1.64 trillion yuan [5]. - Cambricon's current market value exceeds 580 billion yuan, making it the only tech stock in A-shares with a price above 1000 yuan [6]. - Despite a remarkable revenue growth of 4347.82% year-on-year, Cambricon's projected 2024 revenue and net profit are only 1.17 billion yuan and -450 million yuan, raising questions about the sustainability of its high valuation [6][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Cambricon reported a staggering 43-fold increase in revenue, reaching 2.88 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 295.82% year-on-year [9][10]. - The company's second-quarter revenue for 2025 was 1.77 billion yuan, a 4425.01% increase, with a net profit of 683 million yuan, up 324.97% [13]. - The financial situation has improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities turning positive at 911 million yuan, indicating a healthier business operation [15]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Support Factors - The surge in Cambricon's valuation is supported by three main factors: the urgent need for domestic alternatives, continuous company benefits, and successful product deployment across key industries [20][21]. - The demand for domestic AI chips is expected to reach a 40% market share in state-owned sectors by 2025, reflecting a shift towards local production [22][23]. - Cambricon's recent approval for a 4.5 billion yuan private placement aims to fund AI chip and software R&D, seen as crucial for technological breakthroughs [25]. - The company is collaborating with leading firms in various sectors to enhance its product offerings and deployment [26]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, Cambricon faces significant risks, including a potential market correction due to its high P/E ratio exceeding 3000, which is unsustainable compared to industry norms [30]. - The reliance on overseas suppliers for critical components poses a risk to its supply chain stability, influenced by geopolitical factors [32]. - Increased competition from domestic players like Huawei and Baidu, as well as potential new products from Nvidia, could challenge Cambricon's market position [34][35].