市场看好日股日元双走高，年内或4万5000点

Group 1 - The core expectation in the market is for "stock price increases and yen appreciation," with predictions that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 2-3 times and the Bank of Japan will raise rates once this year [1][6]. - There is a strong belief that the Nikkei average index will rise to between 44,000 and 45,000 points in November and December, driven by a reassessment of tariff impacts and potential upward revisions in corporate earnings [3][6]. - The market anticipates that the yen may appreciate beyond 140 yen per dollar, as current expectations have not fully reflected this potential [6]. Group 2 - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech highlighted employment risks and hinted at the possibility of rate cuts, surprising the market which had previously been cautious about such moves [3]. - The upcoming U.S. employment data release on September 5 is critical, as poor results could strengthen expectations for a 0.5% rate cut by the Fed [6]. - Concerns about rising inflation in the U.S. could lead to increased selling pressure on the yen, especially if combined with political and fiscal uncertainties in Japan [6].