破1.5万！这个超大城市，房价失守了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in housing prices in Dongguan, a newly classified super city, highlighting the reasons behind this trend and its implications for the real estate market [2][4][10]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - Dongguan's second-hand housing prices peaked at 24,334 yuan per square meter in April 2023 and have since dropped to 14,457 yuan, a decrease of 40.6% [5][6][7]. - The average price in various districts has also seen substantial declines, with some areas experiencing drops exceeding 50% [15][11]. - The highest price areas, such as Songshan Lake High-tech Zone, have seen prices fall from nearly 70,000 yuan to around 40,000 yuan [12][13][26]. Group 2: Economic and Industrial Context - Dongguan is recognized as one of the 27 cities in China with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan, and it ranks among the top ten industrial cities in the country [16][17]. - The city has five industries with a revenue of over 100 billion yuan, including one industry exceeding 1 trillion yuan, making it a significant player in the manufacturing sector [20][21]. - Despite its strong economic and industrial foundation, the housing market is undergoing a correction due to previous speculative bubbles that inflated prices beyond sustainable levels [25][27]. Group 3: Market Pressures - The current housing market faces three main pressures: high inventory levels, a disconnect in purchasing power, and challenges in industrial transformation [46][47]. - The supply-demand ratio for new homes is approximately 0.83:1, indicating a balance, but the actual inventory of second-hand homes has increased, leading to a prolonged de-stocking period [46]. - A significant portion of the non-resident population in Dongguan earns below the median income, limiting their ability to afford homes priced above 10,000 yuan per square meter [46][47]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The adjustment in Dongguan's housing prices reflects a broader trend among industrial cities in China, where the conflict between manufacturing profitability and real estate speculation is becoming increasingly evident [47]. - The future stability of housing prices will depend on successful industrial upgrades, talent attraction, and consumption growth, breaking the cycle of reliance on manufacturing strength to stabilize property values [47].