挨了50%的关税大棒后，印度拍了拍中国

Core Viewpoint - India's shift towards cooperation with China is driven not only by economic interests but also by the inevitable changes in the geopolitical landscape, making it a pragmatic choice [2][48]. Group 1: US-India Relations - The US Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on all Indian products starting August 27, which has effectively "killed" trade between the US and India, with Citigroup predicting a GDP decline of 0.6% to 0.8% for India [2][8]. - The trade deficit between the US and India reached $45.7 billion out of a total bilateral trade of $129 billion, prompting Trump to label India as a "vampire" [9]. - Modi's government has been resistant to US demands, particularly regarding agricultural market access, as 72% of India's population relies on agriculture, making it a sensitive issue [14][16]. Group 2: China-India Relations - Following the deterioration of US-India relations, China and India have seen a warming of ties, with significant outcomes from the August 19 foreign ministers' meeting [3][4]. - The bilateral trade volume between China and India reached $118.4 billion in 2023-2024, with India exporting to China increasing by 8.7% [21]. - India has a trade deficit of $85 billion with China, with approximately 70% of its imports coming from China, highlighting India's dependency on Chinese goods [25][28]. Group 3: Economic Interdependence - India's reliance on Chinese intermediate goods and capital equipment is significant, with around 87% of imports from China being crucial for India's industrial and manufacturing sectors [28]. - The Modi government has initiated the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to reduce dependency on Chinese imports and boost domestic manufacturing, achieving a 35.1% increase in electronic exports in 2024 [30][33]. - Despite efforts to promote "Make in India," the lack of Chinese investment and technology has hindered the growth of India's manufacturing sector [35]. Group 4: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The past decade has seen fluctuating relations between China and India, with periods of cooperation and conflict, notably the "Dragon-Elephant Cooperation" phase in 2015 [37][41]. - Recent geopolitical shifts and economic pressures have led India to reconsider its stance towards China, with potential for a renewed partnership if both sides can manage their differences strategically [49].