股价3年狂飙22倍，寒武纪紧急发声：存在脱离基本面风险

Core Viewpoint - The company, Cambrian, has issued a significant risk warning regarding its stock price, which has surged 133.86% from July 28, 2025, to August 28, 2025, indicating a potential disconnection from its current fundamentals and suggesting that investors may face considerable risks [1]. Summary by Sections Stock Performance - Cambrian's stock price has increased dramatically, with a cumulative rise of over 170% since July 11, 2025, and a staggering 22-fold increase (2288.75%) over the past three years [5]. - On August 28, 2025, Cambrian's stock closed at 1587.91 CNY per share, surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the highest-valued stock in A-shares [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company projects a full-year revenue of 5 billion to 7 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting a significant increase compared to previous periods [1]. - Cambrian reported a year-on-year revenue growth exceeding 43 times and has turned a profit, contributing to its rise in stock value [3]. Market Position and Investor Sentiment - Cambrian has been included in several major indices, such as CSI 300 and SSE 50, which has positively influenced its stock price [5]. - Notable investors, including "super bull" Zhang Jianping, have heavily invested in Cambrian, with his holdings valued at over 8.8 billion CNY, indicating strong confidence in the company's fundamentals [5]. Risks and Challenges - Cambrian faces high inventory pressure, with inventory reaching 2.69 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 51.64% increase from the previous year, indicating a strategy of "stockpiling inventory" [9]. - The company has a high customer concentration risk, with the top five customers accounting for 85.31% of accounts receivable, and has made significant provisions for bad debts [9]. - Supply chain uncertainties are present due to the company's reliance on foundries like TSMC and being listed on the U.S. Entity List, which may affect its operational performance [9]. Valuation Concerns - Cambrian's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio reached 595 times, significantly higher than the semiconductor industry median of 137 times, raising concerns about potential valuation bubbles [9]. - Institutional sentiment is mixed, with 269 funds increasing their holdings while 119 funds chose to reduce their positions, indicating a divergence in market outlook [9].