国际油价跌到50美元？高盛最新预测！美联储降息压力增大

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices may drop to $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 due to increasing oversupply in the oil market [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026, driven by a daily oversupply of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 [2][4]. - The report indicates that Brent crude oil prices, currently around $66 per barrel, are expected to decline to the low $50 range by the end of 2026, particularly as OECD countries experience weakened oil demand [4]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Monetary Policy - The decline in oil prices is anticipated to significantly lower the energy component of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), potentially accelerating the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][5]. - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially with increasing pressure from political figures like Trump, which could lead to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar [5][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Capital Flows - The weakening dollar is generally favorable for emerging market assets, and there has been a notable increase in capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and financial sectors [8][9]. - Recent data shows significant net purchases by southbound funds in Hong Kong, indicating a strong interest in the market amid improving liquidity conditions [8][9].