离岸人民币涨穿7.12元，大涨超300点

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, driven by both domestic and international factors, and highlights the potential for further appreciation of the RMB in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 28, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 reaching new closing highs, while large tech stocks mostly rose, and quantum computing stocks led the gains [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate surged over 300 points, reaching 7.1173, marking the first time it surpassed 7.12 since November 6, 2024, and creating a new high in nearly 10 months [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - On August 29, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1306, up 194 basis points from the previous trading day [4] - The US second-quarter GDP was revised upward to an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3%, exceeding the previous report of 3% [4] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 229,000, with continuing claims falling to 1.954 million, both below expectations [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months unless significant economic weakness is observed [4] - The potential inflation rate, excluding temporary tariff impacts, is close to 2%, with the policy rate expected to be 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points above the neutral rate [4] Group 4: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the recent strengthening of the RMB is due to three driving forces from both domestic and international contexts [5] - The adjustment of the RMB central parity has been significant, with the deviation from the onshore market price increasing from 0 to 400-500 basis points, aimed at guiding the RMB to appreciate moderately [5] - If the central bank continues to adhere to a market-based approach, the RMB could potentially return to the 6 range, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [6]