美国7月PCE前瞻：关税影响料升级，或难阻9月降息

Core Inflation Pressure Escalates - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data has shown a rebound since April after hitting a low in March, indicating that tariffs from the Trump administration are slowly pushing up goods prices and driving inflation rates [3] - The overall PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in July, maintaining the same growth rate as June [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, may see a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, marking the highest level since February of this year, which is particularly significant as it is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [3] Impact of Tariffs on Specific Industries - The furniture industry is projected to face a 4.2% year-on-year increase in prices due to tariffs and supply chain bottlenecks, with companies like Ashley Furniture and Ethan Allen passing costs onto consumers [4] - The manufacturing sector is expanding at the fastest pace in over three years, contributing to ongoing inflationary pressures, with sales price indices reaching a three-year high [4] - Wells Fargo reports that price pressures related to tariffs are expanding from goods to services, predicting that the core PCE will peak slightly above 3% by the end of the year [4] Cost Burden Distribution - As of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of the costs from tariffs, while consumers took on 22%, and foreign exporters absorbed 14%. However, by October, it is expected that consumers will bear two-thirds of the cost increases, with foreign companies and U.S. businesses taking on 25% and 8%, respectively [5] Policy Outlook - At the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential for rate cuts in September, citing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [7] - Major banks, including Morgan Stanley and Société Générale, have adjusted their forecasts to anticipate rate cuts starting in September, with predictions of quarterly cuts continuing until the end of 2026 [7] - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 87%, with a 36% chance of a total reduction of 75 basis points this year [7] Political Influence on Monetary Policy - President Trump recently dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which is seen as an attempt to exert control over the Fed, potentially allowing Trump to influence key appointments within the Federal Reserve Board [8] - If successful, this could lead to a majority control over the board, impacting future monetary policy decisions and potentially easing the path for rate cuts [8]