中国天然气发展报告（2025）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growth and transformation of China's natural gas industry, highlighting its role in the global energy transition and the importance of policy reforms to enhance market efficiency and security [8][36]. Group 1: Global Natural Gas Development Trends - In 2024, global natural gas consumption is projected to reach 4.13 trillion cubic meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5%, driven by lower international gas prices and moderate economic recovery [11]. - Asia-Pacific leads global growth with a consumption increase of 4.5%, particularly in China and India, which see growth rates of 7.3% and 13.0%, respectively [11]. - Global natural gas production is expected to grow by 1.5% to 4.12 trillion cubic meters, with significant contributions from the Middle East and Russia [13]. - The global natural gas trade volume is anticipated to increase by 1.9%, with pipeline gas trade growing by 2.2% and LNG trade by 1.4% [13][14]. Group 2: China's Natural Gas Development - In 2024, China's natural gas consumption is expected to grow by 7.3%, with its share in total primary energy consumption rising to 8.8% [18]. - The industrial fuel consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by 6.1%, driven by equipment upgrades and the expansion of strategic emerging industries [19]. - Domestic natural gas production is forecasted to reach 246.5 billion cubic meters, marking a 6.0% increase, with unconventional gas production surpassing 100 billion cubic meters for the first time [20]. - Natural gas imports are expected to grow by 9.9% to 1.817 trillion cubic meters, with pipeline gas imports increasing by 13.1% [20]. Group 3: Market System Reforms - The implementation of the Energy Law aims to enhance the legal framework for the natural gas sector, promoting exploration and development while ensuring supply security [27]. - The establishment of the National Pipeline Network Group has facilitated the separation of transportation and sales, increasing the number of shippers from 5 to 765 [29]. - The marketization of natural gas pricing has progressed significantly, with the share of market-based pricing for various gas sources increasing [31]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Natural Gas Development - In the first half of 2025, China's natural gas consumption is expected to grow by 2% to 3%, with production continuing to increase for the ninth consecutive year [34]. - The completion of the China-Russia East Line is anticipated to enhance gas imports, while LNG imports will be adjusted based on international price fluctuations [34]. - The article highlights the importance of achieving a balance between supply and demand amid geopolitical uncertainties and climate change challenges [34].