经济观察报·2025-08-29 12:01Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to price increases in upstream silicon materials, which could help the photovoltaic industry escape the low-price competition dilemma. However, due to weak terminal demand, the price transmission effect has been poor, resulting in new issues such as upstream inventory accumulation and increased costs in the midstream [1][17]. Upstream Price and Inventory Issues - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing challenges such as inventory accumulation and declining terminal demand. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's silicon division reported that while there is still bullish sentiment, the supply-demand fundamentals have not improved, with September's polysilicon production expected to be around 125,000 to 130,000 tons, continuing to face inventory risks [2][4]. - In the first half of the year, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 596,000 tons, a significant decrease of 44.1% year-on-year. However, due to a sharp price increase in July, the market has reversed from a "reduction, quality improvement, and destocking" process to a situation of "price increase and inventory accumulation" [3][4]. - Despite the inventory accumulation, polysilicon prices have surged, with the average price of N-type polysilicon rising from 34,400 yuan/ton at the end of June to 47,900 yuan/ton by August 27, marking a short-term increase of about 38% [4][5]. Midstream Price Transmission Challenges - Following the significant price increase in upstream polysilicon, there have been reports of "shortages and price increases" in photovoltaic modules. However, major companies indicate that there is sufficient supply of photovoltaic components, and any shortages are likely isolated incidents. The price increases in modules have not been substantial due to weak downstream demand [8][9]. - The recent price increases in high-efficiency components are attributed to structural and phase adjustments in the market, driven by technological iterations and differentiated demand in the downstream market [9][10]. Declining Terminal Demand - The recent data indicates a significant decline in terminal demand, with July's newly installed solar power capacity at only 11.04 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 47.55% [12][13]. - The decline in demand is attributed to a combination of policy changes, market factors, and the industry's transition from rapid growth to high-quality development. The "136 document" has led to a cautious approach among investors, delaying new project approvals and installations [13][14][15]. Potential Solutions for Industry Challenges - To address the inventory accumulation in polysilicon, industry self-discipline in production reduction is necessary. The "anti-involution" policy may help mitigate low-price competition, but the industry must focus on self-regulation and collaboration to avoid blind expansion and price wars [17][19]. - Key strategies for breaking the industry deadlock include enhancing self-discipline and collaboration, driving technological innovation, extending value chains into storage and energy operations, and strengthening global presence to reduce reliance on single markets [19][20].