银行股为何持续回调

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has experienced a significant correction since July, with many banks seeing declines over 10%, attributed to a shift in market style from defensive to growth sectors, rather than fundamental issues within the banks themselves [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On August 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.99%, with a total trading volume of 2.8 trillion yuan [1]. - The banking sector initially rose by 1.3% but ended the day down by 0.77%, indicating a "V-shaped" reversal [1]. Decline in Banking Stocks - From July 11 to August 29, only 4 out of 42 listed banks saw an increase in their stock prices, with 17 banks experiencing declines exceeding 10% [3][4]. - Notable declines included Minsheng Bank (-16.18%), Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (-15.79%), and Beijing Bank (-15.25%) [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Analysts suggest that the ongoing pressure on the banking sector is not the primary cause of the stock price declines, as the fundamental performance of banks has been weak for three years [4][5]. - A rare negative growth in new credit data in July and a projected 1.2% decline in net profit for commercial banks in the first half of 2025 further highlight the challenges faced by the sector [3][4]. Market Style Shift - The shift in market style is characterized by a transition of funds from defensive sectors like banking to growth sectors, driven by a desire for higher returns [1][5]. - The banking sector contributed significantly to the market's rise earlier in the year, but since July, technology and innovation sectors have taken the lead [5]. Future Outlook for Banking Stocks - Tianfeng Securities views the current correction in banking stocks as a "bull market interlude," suggesting it is not the end of the bullish trend [7]. - The firm believes that the appeal of banking stocks remains strong due to their relatively high dividend yields of 3%-4% and low valuations compared to other financial assets [7][8]. - Structural opportunities exist within the banking sector, as some banks have reported better-than-expected earnings, such as Xi'an Bank, which saw a 43.7% increase in revenue year-on-year [7].