5个月新高！美联储最青睐的通胀指标升温，如何影响降息前景

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in inflation pressures in the U.S. as of July, alongside a significant increase in consumer spending, indicating a complex economic landscape ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting [3]. Inflation Pressure - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, a slowdown of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [4]. - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth accelerating to 2.9%, the highest level since February [4]. Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, was revised up to 0.4% in June and accelerated to 0.5% in July, marking the highest growth since March [5]. - The increase in spending was largely driven by durable goods purchases, which rose by 0.8%, particularly in automobiles, household furniture, and sporting goods [5]. Labor Market and Employment - Despite a low unemployment rate supporting consumption and wage growth, employers are hesitant to increase headcount due to rising operational costs from tariffs [5]. - Average monthly job growth over the past three months was reported at 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period last year [5]. Policy Outlook - The July PCE data is one of three key reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, alongside the August non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [7]. - Many economists on Wall Street expect inflation to rise further due to increasing business costs and reduced inventory, with retailers and automakers warning that tariffs are raising their costs, which may be passed on to consumers [7]. Federal Reserve Consensus - There is a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve towards a potential rate cut in September, although significant divisions remain regarding inflation concerns and labor market weaknesses [8]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September stands at 84%, consistent with the PCE data release [7]. Consumer Sentiment - The proportion of consumers finding it "hard to get a job" rose to the highest level in four and a half years as of August, indicating growing concerns about the labor market [9]. - Despite concerns about inflation spiraling, the current data suggests a potential for a rate cut in September, although uncertainties remain due to strong consumer and core inflation rates exceeding the Federal Reserve's target [9].