能源高质量发展专家谈丨“十四五”能源规划成绩评述及形势展望

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" marks a crucial period for energy transformation in China, achieving significant results despite various challenges, with a focus on optimizing industrial layout and enhancing system resilience for high-quality energy development in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 1: Achievements in Energy Development - Energy supply capacity has been significantly enhanced, with oil production expected to reach approximately 213 million tons in 2024, and natural gas production projected to hit 246.4 billion cubic meters [3] - Coal supply security has improved, with major coal supply bases established, and over 300 million kilowatts of coal power units modified for flexibility [3] - The total installed power generation capacity reached 3.65 billion kilowatts by mid-2025, with 44 ultra-high voltage transmission lines in operation, establishing the world's largest power infrastructure system [4] Group 2: Acceleration of Green Energy Transition - Renewable energy has become the mainstay of power generation, with a total installed capacity of 2.159 billion kilowatts by mid-2025, accounting for 59.2% of total capacity [5] - Nuclear power development has progressed steadily, with operational capacity reaching 60.91 million kilowatts and a total of 113 million kilowatts in operation, approved, and under construction [5] - The ability of the power system to accommodate high proportions of renewable energy has significantly improved, with new energy storage capacity reaching 73.76 million kilowatts by the end of 2024 [5] Group 3: Optimization of Energy Layout - Key regional energy projects have been advanced, including large-scale wind and solar bases in the Sanbei region, with 90 million kilowatts completed in the first phase [7] - Cross-regional energy transmission channels have been constructed, enhancing the "West-to-East Power Transmission" capacity to over 300 million kilowatts [7] - Rural energy transformation initiatives have been implemented, with over 83,000 village-level photovoltaic assistance stations established [8] Group 4: Strengthening Energy Technology Innovation - The efficiency of clean coal utilization has improved by 40%, with successful applications of coal liquefaction technology [9] - Breakthroughs in deep-sea oil and gas resource development have been achieved, including the construction of the world's first 100,000-ton deep-water semi-submersible production platform [9] - Significant advancements in smart energy technologies have been made, integrating AI and 5G into energy sectors for improved operational efficiency [9] Group 5: International Energy Cooperation - Energy cooperation with regions such as Russia and the Middle East has been deepened, enhancing energy supply security and infrastructure connectivity [10] - China's photovoltaic products have captured approximately 85% of the global market share, with significant investments in renewable energy projects across over 100 countries [10] - Active participation in global energy governance reforms has been emphasized, strengthening international cooperation on climate change [10] Group 6: Recommendations for Future Development - The integration of source, grid, load, and storage should be promoted to address issues of renewable energy curtailment and optimize energy industry layout [11] - The role of fossil energy as a safety net should be reinforced, encouraging cross-sector collaboration and breaking down investment barriers [12] - Carbon emission intensity will replace energy consumption intensity as a key indicator, necessitating systemic adjustments in energy policies to support low-carbon development [13]