【广发金工】融资余额持续增加

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 7.49% and the ChiNext Index rose by 7.74% over the last five trading days, while the large-cap value index fell by 1.37% [1] - The large-cap growth index gained 5.83%, and the Shanghai 50 Index increased by 1.63%, with the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 rising by 0.33% [1] - Communication and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well, while textiles, apparel, and coal sectors lagged [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of 10-year government bonds indicates a risk premium, which reached 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.08% on October 28, 2022, leading to a market rebound [1] - As of January 19, 2024, the risk premium indicator was at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 of exceeding 4% [1] - The indicator as of August 29, 2025, was at 2.92%, with the two-standard deviation boundary set at 4.77% [1] Valuation Levels - As of August 29, 2025, the CSI All Index's P/E TTM percentile was at 78%, while the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 were at 72% and 70%, respectively [2] - The ChiNext Index was close to 46%, indicating a relatively low valuation level compared to historical averages [2] Technical Analysis - The Deep 100 Index has experienced bear markets every three years, with declines ranging from 40% to 45% [2] - The current adjustment cycle began in Q1 2021, suggesting a potential upward cycle from the bottom [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows totaled 28.6 billion yuan, and margin financing increased by approximately 96.6 billion yuan [3] - The average daily trading volume across both markets was 29.51 billion yuan [3] AI and Data Analysis - A convolutional neural network (CNN) was utilized to model price and volume data, mapping learned features to industry themes [9] - The latest investment themes include artificial intelligence and related sectors [2]