中外资机构：中国资本市场迎来“慢牛”行情

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese capital market is entering a "slow bull" phase, with an increasing consensus on allocating more non-USD assets due to improving long-term investment expectations from both domestic and international investors [12][19]. Group 1: Market Outlook - A-shares and H-shares have emerged from valuation lows, reflecting improved long-term investment expectations in the Chinese capital market [13]. - The current market rebound is not driven by short-term speculation but by sustainable changes in the economy, such as stabilization, structural optimization, and improved corporate profitability [13][15]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to attract more overseas investment due to its high dividend yield and growth potential in sectors like artificial intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals [14]. Group 2: Economic Assessment - The Chinese economy is showing a "steady progress" trend, supported by internal consumption recovery, industrial upgrades, and resilient external trade [17]. - The macroeconomic policy is effectively improving both internal and external demand, providing a solid foundation for achieving annual growth targets [17]. Group 3: Policy Expectations - Key areas of focus for future policies include proactive fiscal measures, continued moderate monetary easing, and breaking down barriers to enhance domestic market potential [18]. - The government is expected to prioritize the implementation of the 2025 fiscal budget and maintain a flexible monetary policy to achieve around 5% growth [18]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - There is a growing consensus to increase allocations to non-USD assets, such as gold, silver, real estate, and cryptocurrencies, as the dominance of the dollar is expected to weaken [19][23]. - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios and adjust positions based on policy and asset valuation fluctuations, especially in light of uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [21][22]. - The rebalancing of global assets is accelerating, with a shift from over-allocated USD assets to local markets in Europe and Asia, which may support local asset valuations [23].