新材料投资逻辑：战略自主与市场规律的双重博弈

Core Viewpoint - The new materials industry is experiencing significant growth, with China's total output value expected to exceed 8 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining double-digit growth for 14 consecutive years, while facing structural challenges in high-end technology reliance [2][7]. Global Competitive Landscape and China's Positioning - The global new materials industry has formed a stable competitive structure with the US, Japan, and Europe in the first tier, holding absolute advantages in core technologies and market share. China, along with South Korea and Russia, is in the second tier, rapidly catching up but still heavily reliant on imports for high-end polymers and electronic chemicals [4][5]. Investment Drivers in New Materials - The investment logic in the new materials sector is based on a "demand-policy-technology" triangle model, where market demand, supportive policies, and technological breakthroughs interact to determine investment value and timing [10]. Market Demand - The rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle industry is driving diverse demand for new materials, with revenue in structural materials expected to grow by 12.5% year-on-year in 2024 [11]. - The semiconductor and display industries are creating a growing market for high-end electronic chemicals, with significant progress in domestic production of photolithography materials [12]. Policy Support - China has established a comprehensive policy support system for the new materials industry, including financial backing through the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which has seen 51 new materials companies raise over 43 billion yuan [13]. - The standardization efforts by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are crucial for promoting the industrialization of new materials [14]. Technological Breakthroughs - Domestic companies are making significant strides in high-end polymer materials, with breakthroughs in POE and PI production expected to reduce import dependency [16][23]. - Patent layout and intellectual property protection are critical for competitive advantage, with domestic firms strengthening their patent portfolios in key areas [17]. Investment Value in Specific Segments High-End Polymer Materials - High-end polymer materials are characterized by high import dependency, with POE and PI showing import reliance rates of 95% and 85% respectively, presenting clear investment opportunities for domestic production [20]. Carbon Fiber Materials - The carbon fiber sector is transitioning from capacity expansion to quality improvement, with a notable increase in the production of high-end T700/T800 grade products [25]. - The demand for carbon fiber in wind power and aerospace applications is expected to grow, providing investment opportunities in companies that can produce high-performance products [27]. Electronic Chemicals - The electronic chemicals sector is experiencing a "gradient replacement" trend, with varying levels of domestic production across different product categories, highlighting investment opportunities in companies that can meet the growing demand for high-purity materials [28]. Biobased New Materials - The biobased materials market is projected to grow significantly, driven by policy mandates and decreasing production costs, with a focus on biobased BDO and PA showing promising investment potential [35][36]. Superconducting Materials - The superconducting materials market is expected to reach $28 billion in 2024, with investment opportunities centered around high-temperature superconductors and their applications in energy and medical fields [38][39]. Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with investment opportunities in electrolyte materials and high-nickel cathodes, as the industry shifts towards higher energy density and safety [40][44].