势银研究 | 中国绿氢市场总结与展望（2025H1）

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the rapid growth and development of China's green hydrogen market during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with significant increases in production capacity and a shift towards large-scale projects [4][26]. Group 1: Policy - During the first half of 2025, approximately 200 hydrogen-related policies were issued in China, with 35 at the national level [9]. - The national level has achieved its hydrogen production targets for 2025, with regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang exceeding their planned capacities [10][12]. - Local policies have surged since 2022, with significant announcements from provinces such as Zhejiang and Guangdong in the first half of 2025 [9]. Group 2: Project Development - From January to July 2025, China added 154 new green hydrogen projects, bringing the total to 1,106 projects, with a potential production capacity of 17.58 million tons per year [14]. - The characteristics of new projects include low startup rates (under 30%), a predominance of alkaline (ALK) technology, and a significant involvement of state-owned enterprises [15]. - Major projects expected to be completed in 2025 include large-scale renewable energy hydrogen production facilities [27]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The green hydrogen production capacity in China is projected to exceed 230,000 tons per year by the end of 2025, marking a new phase in industry development [4][26]. - The demand for hydrogen production equipment is expected to reach approximately 3.5 GW by 2025, indicating a growing market for related technologies [27]. - The market for hydrogen production equipment is currently undergoing a "reshuffling" phase, with a notable decline in investment activity [23][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - 2025 is identified as a critical year for the development of China's green hydrogen industry, with the country leading globally in renewable energy hydrogen production [26]. - The report emphasizes the need for enhanced policy guidance, technological innovation, and expanded application scenarios to support industry growth [27].