中外资机构：中国资本市场迎来“慢牛”行情

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term investment outlook for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting a shift towards a "slow bull" market driven by improved investor sentiment and fundamental economic changes in China [4][5]. Group 1: Market Outlook - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have emerged from valuation lows, indicating a positive shift in investor expectations for the Chinese capital market [4]. - The current market rebound is not merely speculative but reflects sustainable changes in the Chinese economy, including stabilization and recovery, structural optimization, and improved corporate profitability [4][6]. - The participation in this valuation reassessment is primarily from international and domestic institutions, which are adopting more rational and long-term investment strategies [4]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - China's economy is showing a "steady progress" trend, supported by internal consumption recovery, industrial upgrades, and resilient external trade [8]. - The macroeconomic policy mix is effectively improving both internal and external demand, providing a solid foundation for achieving annual growth targets [8]. Group 3: Policy Expectations - Key areas of focus for future policies include proactive fiscal measures, continued moderate monetary easing, and breaking down barriers to enhance domestic market potential [9]. - The government is expected to prioritize the implementation of the 2025 fiscal budget and may slightly ease monetary policy to achieve around 5% growth [9]. Group 4: U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates by 50 to 75 basis points this year, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [11]. - Market expectations for future rate cuts may be overly optimistic, as persistent inflation could limit the extent of subsequent reductions [11]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - There is a consensus on increasing allocations to non-dollar assets, such as gold, silver, real estate, and cryptocurrencies, as the dominance of the dollar is expected to weaken [10][14]. - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios and adjust positions based on policy and asset valuation fluctuations [12][13].