美股最动荡月份来了

Core Viewpoint - September is historically the most volatile month for the US market, with uncertainties such as potential Fed rate cuts and political pressures on the Fed adding to the suspense of whether the S&P 500 can maintain its strength after reaching historical highs [3][5]. Market Trends - The S&P 500 index has a 56% probability of declining in September, with an average drop of 1.17% since 1927, and a more concerning average drop of 1.93% over the past decade [5][8]. - In the first year of a presidential term, the S&P 500's decline probability in September rises to 58%, with an average drop of 1.62% [5]. Valuation Risks - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 has reached 22 times, nearing levels seen at the end of the internet bubble, raising concerns about potential sell-off pressures during portfolio rebalancing at the end of September [8]. - Hedge funds have increased their stock holdings to the 80th percentile, indicating a risk of overextension in positions [8]. Sector Performance - Since August, cyclical sectors and small-cap stocks have led the market, with the non-essential consumer sector ETF rising by 4.3% and the Russell 2000 small-cap index increasing by 7.3%, significantly outperforming large tech stocks [8]. Economic Indicators - Recent US economic data presents a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls declining significantly from May to July, while retail sales and major retailers' earnings indicate strong consumer spending [8][11]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs in August, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.3% [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Fed's expectation of a rate cut has increased due to the significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with Chairman Powell indicating a shift from a cautious stance [11]. - Market pricing suggests that while a rate cut in September is fully priced in, the probability of more than two cuts this year has decreased from over 50% to below 30% [13]. Political Pressures - Political pressures on the Fed, particularly from President Trump, raise concerns about the Fed's ability to maintain its independence in monetary policy [13]. - The potential removal of Fed officials could lead to a more dovish stance on interest rates, facilitating future rate cuts [13].