特朗普“斗法”美联储，又有新剧情

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns regarding the influence of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, particularly after the potential confirmation of Stephen Miran as a Fed governor, which could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility [2][5][6]. Group 1: Impact of Trump's Administration on the Federal Reserve - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many believe the Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve could lead to a loss of its independence, with 89 participants stating that the ongoing conflict has already damaged the Fed's credibility [6]. - Over a quarter of economists worry that by 2029, the Fed may struggle to maintain its role in keeping borrowing costs free from political influence [6]. - 52% of respondents expect a shift in the Fed's focus after Powell's term ends, prioritizing government borrowing costs and employment over price stability [6]. Group 2: Economic Predictions and Concerns - Economists describe the outlook for U.S. monetary policy as "bad," "chaotic," and "disastrous," with 42% believing Trump's actions could trigger strong inflationary pressures [5][7]. - The potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is seen as a significant risk by 35% of the surveyed economists [7]. - The article highlights that since 1951, the Fed has had the authority to set interest rates free from political pressure, despite past presidential calls for lower borrowing costs [9]. Group 3: Upcoming Events and Market Reactions - Stephen Miran's confirmation hearing is scheduled for September 4, with expectations that it may pass quickly before the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [2][11]. - The market's reaction to Miran's nomination has been relatively calm, although there are concerns about potential aggressive questioning from Democrats regarding the administration's influence on the Fed [10][11]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting is estimated at 84%, following dovish comments from Powell [12].