证券时报·2025-09-02 02:30Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is undergoing a significant shift towards "anti-involution" policies, leading to price increases and a potential recovery in profitability for companies [3][4][10]. Group 1: Price Adjustments and Market Dynamics - Several express companies in key e-commerce regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang have raised delivery fees, with expectations of similar actions in other provinces [3][5]. - The price adjustments range from 0.3 to 0.7 yuan per ticket in Guangdong, with a new minimum price set at 1.4 yuan [5]. - The average profit margin for express delivery points has drastically decreased from 10% to 2-4% since 2015, indicating a severe impact from previous price wars [6][12]. Group 2: Impact on Profitability and Service Quality - The recent price hikes are expected to alleviate cost pressures on logistics providers, with some benefiting from the new pricing mechanism [6][13]. - The average ticket price increase is anticipated to improve company profits and stabilize courier incomes, moving the industry from volume-based competition to value-based competition [4][13]. - The express delivery sector has faced a decline in average ticket prices, with a 17.84% year-on-year drop in early 2025, despite a 21.6% increase in business volume [12]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Industry Response - The "anti-involution" measures are a response to previous irrational price wars that destabilized the market and harmed courier rights [11][12]. - The National Postal Administration has implemented strict measures against below-cost pricing, aiming to restore healthy competition in the industry [5][13]. - The introduction of new regulations, including the draft amendment to the Price Law, aims to combat harmful competitive practices [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Adjustments - Experts predict that the express delivery industry may gradually escape the cycle of price wars over the next 2-3 years, thanks to ongoing regulatory efforts and company transformations [15]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance service quality and explore collaborative models with e-commerce businesses to improve operational efficiency [14][15]. - The focus on high-quality service and technological advancements is seen as essential for maintaining competitiveness in the evolving market landscape [14].