深夜！股、债、汇三杀，发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant turmoil in the European and American financial markets, highlighting a collective sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currencies, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and rising interest rates [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On September 2, European markets experienced a "triple whammy" with the pound and euro sharply declining against the dollar, with the pound dropping 1.52% to 1.3340, marking its largest single-day decline since April 7 [3]. - Major European stock indices fell, with the German index down 1.68% and the Spanish index down 1.35% by 22:00 Beijing time [3]. - In the U.S., major stock indices also plummeted, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and the VIX index rising over 19%, indicating increased market volatility [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The UK 30-year government bond yield surged to 5.69%, the highest level since 1998, while Germany's and France's yields also reached significant highs of 3.40% and over 4.5%, respectively [5]. - Analysts noted a vicious cycle where rising debt concerns lead to higher yields, which in turn exacerbate debt dynamics [5]. - The proposed windfall tax on bank reserves by the UK government has raised fears regarding the sustainability of the UK's fiscal policy [6]. Group 3: Economic Policy and Inflation - The article highlights that high inflation in the UK may limit the Bank of England's ability to lower interest rates, thereby reducing economic stimulus [10]. - Eurozone inflation data for August showed a slight increase to 2.1%, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its current interest rate policy [11]. - The ECB's potential for future rate cuts is complicated by ongoing economic growth and inflation risks, with market expectations for a rate cut by December being only 25% [11]. Group 4: Pension System Reforms - The Netherlands is undergoing a pension system reform that shifts investment strategies, leading to increased demand for risk assets and reduced demand for long-duration hedging tools [7]. - This reform is expected to have a profound impact on the European long-term bond market, as Dutch pension savings account for over half of the EU's total and hold nearly €300 billion in European bonds [8].